Orlando, Fla. -- Scrap plastic imported into China this year will likely plummet from 2017 levels, possibly to less than 5 percent of what it was last year, according to an estimate from a Chinese plastics recycling organization.

Steve Wong, the executive president of the Beijing-based China Scrap Plastics Association, said China has authorized import permits for only about 375 million pounds of plastic for recycling, or 3 percent of the 12.9 billion pounds imported in 2017.

"In 2018, at this moment, this is only a projection. Up to last month, only 40,000 tonnes (88.1 million pounds) of plastic scrap was allowed or approved by the authorities for importation," Wong said in a May 8 speech at a recycling conference held as part of NPE2018 in Orlando.

A drop was expected, given China's strict National Sword crackdown last year on imported scrap plastics and other materials. But Wong's comments reinforce the scale of the dramatic shifts underway in global recycling trades.

In the wake of China's July 2017 notice to the World Trade Organization that it was sharply restricting recycled imports, Wong estimated 60 to 70 percent of Chinese plastics recycling companies that relied on imports have closed, and about 10 percent have shifted to the domestic industry.

The remaining roughly 20 percent have moved operations to other countries, particularly in Southeast Asia, where they refine and reprocess the scrap into pellets for direct export to China manufacturing plants, Wong said.

"The most popular place for recycling nowadays is Southeast Asian countries and the most popular countries are Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia," Wong said.